He was right about 2008. Is 2026 next?

Good morning,

Fred Harrison, know who he is?

He’s the economist who called the 2008 crash. Now he says UK property will crash in 2026.

With his track record, we can’t ignore it. But the data tells a more complicated story.

Let’s dive in.

This Week’s Biggest News…….

1. UK inflation dropped to 3% in January — a 10-month low — pushing money markets to price in an 86% probability of a March rate cut. The base rate could reach 3% by year-end, which is positive news for anyone looking to take out or refinance a mortgage.

2. ONS data shows UK rent growth easing to 3.5% (£1,367/month), down from 4% in December, with stark regional variation from London's 1.1% to the North East's 8%.

He was right about 2008. Is 2026 next?

You've probably seen the headlines. Maybe they made your stomach drop a little.

"Property crash incoming." "2026 is the peak." "Get out now."

If you're 25–40, you're likely at one of the most financially charged moments of your life, saving for a first home, halfway through a mortgage, building a portfolio, or watching from the sidelines wondering if you've already missed the boat.

The last thing you need is noise dressed up as intelligence.

So I went to the data. Here's what it actually says.

The theory that's making everyone nervous

Fred Harrison is an economist with an uncomfortable track record. He predicted the early-90s crash. He predicted 2008.

His model is built on an 18-year property cycle, a long upswing, a speculative peak, then a sharp correction that wipes out overleveraged buyers and shakes confidence for years.

His prediction? 2026 is the next top.

That gets your attention. It got mine. But here's what I asked next: if the theory is right, the data should already be screaming. Is it?

What the numbers are actually telling us

Prices. Rightmove recorded the largest-ever January asking price jump this year, up 2.8% to around £368,000. That sounds alarming. Then February came, and prices barely moved — up about £12 year-on-year.

Nationwide and other major indices are forecasting 2–4% growth for 2026. That's not a blow-off spike. That's a market catching its breath.

Activity. The latest RICS survey shows buyer enquiries and agreed sales are still slightly negative, but they're the least negative in months. Around 43% of surveyors now expect prices to be higher in a year's time, the most optimistic reading since early 2025.

The direction of travel matters as much as the number itself.

The macro picture. Inflation is easing. Mortgage rates are expected to fall gradually. Wage growth is slowly ( very slowly) improving affordability. None of this is the kind of frenzy you'd expect to see at a classic cycle peak. It looks more like a market quietly waking up from a long sleep.

The honest read? This isn't 2007. It looks like an early-stage recovery with fragile confidence. That's a very different animal.

What could change this (and why you shouldn't ignore it)

The crash case doesn't disappear just because the current data is calm. Here's what to watch:

If inflation flares and rate cuts reverse, mortgage costs rise and buyers retreat. If unemployment starts ticking up, sentiment collapses fast.

If transaction volumes drop sharply, it's one of the earliest warning signs the market is seizing up. These aren't predictions, they're the indicators that would shift this story.

I'll be tracking them every month. You should too.

What this actually means for you

If you're a first-time buyer: this isn't the moment to panic out of the market or panic into it. Affordability is still stretched, but the conditions aren't flashing danger. Do the maths on your own numbers, not headlines.

If you're an existing homeowner: your biggest risk isn't a crash, it's making reactive decisions based on fear. The data doesn't support that fear right now.

If you're an investor: early-stage recoveries are where patient capital is built. Fragile confidence creates opportunity, but only for those who understand what's actually happening beneath the surface.

Property Listing

Bottom Line

You'll hear about the 18-year cycle all year.

Podcasts will cover it. Influencers will monetise it.

Some of it will be useful. Most of it will be designed to make you feel something rather than know something.

That's not what we do here.

We here to give you the numbers behind the narrative, so you can make decisions you actually understand.

Stay data-first.

What’s Next?

Enjoyed this edition?

P.S. Want the 5 crash indicators I'm personally tracking in 2026? Reply "CHECKLIST" and I'll send it straight to you.

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